Private Trader - In the Name of National Security

Educational only. This Market Log entry reflects the personal market views and interpretations of a private trader investing only their own capital. It is impersonal, does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs, and does not constitute financial advice, financial planning, portfolio management, or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. All content is for educational and informational purposes only.

Date published: 2025-10-21

Here it goes!

As mentioned many times over, the market is in an ever-organic-state, constantly molding, twisting, morphing and so on; this means our "equations" and our hypothesis must always be ready to do the same, if not, then you'll always be fighting against the current, and even if you choose that route, you'll be at odds with a significantly higher risk-set; so lets swim with it...if it allows us to...for as long as it allows...until reality smacks us in the face, sooner, rather than later

My current hypothesis

Given the current market dynamic, I'm in the strong realm that US national security is being tested, something of absolute critical importance, of utmost importance!

In simple terms, if the FED were to ever cut 50bps, the time for this is now! Not next month, not end of the year, but now!

Not only that, but I'm in the strong belief it will NOT cause a negative-ripple, on the contrary, due to the justification of national security, its literally bypasses every-single-barrier-imaginable; the exact justification of - national security. And not only will it absorb any potential negative repercussions, it will actually cause a short-termed-stampede across the board; a strategic stabilizer of sorts and one that needs to be injected immediately

It buys time for fiscal cohesion, time thats absolutely not available, time we don't have, but time that will be created with such a cut; nothing is more valuable, nothing is more worthy, than ones national security. And its currently being played with, and this cannot under any condition be the case. Not now, not ever.

A unified front across every domain will occur....but only for so long....

Market Optics

This will essentially buy-time, fiddling with optics management that is greater than any economic relief, where the FED essentially acts as a shield, even against their logical will, against the logic of data or anything inbetween, as again, nothing is more worthy than ones national security!

This in turn will signal great confidence in the market, rather than obliterate and cause fear among us all; it hides the current fragility, but only for so long; sooner rather than later, a global realignment will ensue, that is without doubt incoming...

This in turn causes a slight risk-on, as to me, we're without doubt in a current risk-off, and getting stronger-by-the-day. But once the macro begins to fade, we're faced with reality, and regardless of this national security state, we must maintain a defensive alignment; one I'm taking to heart and following...

We'll essentially be in a state of reflexive exuberance; a state of short-termed-euphoria, "what on earth is going on? Can this be real? Are we really rallying, again? Even under such market conditions?", insane to think it could be real.

Yet a hypothesis I hold strongly as of today, and one my portfolio is currently aligned with...

Loosing our narrative

Once this short-termed-euphoria dissipates, we're left with reality, and it ain't going to be pretty. The novelty of it all will fade, and its absolutely critical one aligns themselves with such a reality, otherwise...well...

I maintain a strong allegiance to a highly-defensive-positioning, I maintain a strong allegiance to US treasuries with no less than 30% of my entire portfolio; my equations are ready for battle, my hypothesis locked and loaded, to battle we go...! We're days from finding out...here we go