Private Trader - From Crypto to Gold: Valid Equation, Flawed Timing

Educational only. This Market Log entry reflects the personal market views and interpretations of a private trader investing only their own capital. It is impersonal, does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs, and does not constitute financial advice, financial planning, portfolio management, or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. All content is for educational and informational purposes only.

Date published: 2025-11-15

Sup folks, here we go:

The Crypto Equation - Over & Done With

Many weeks ago, I built an equation centered on crypto’s downward skew. I’ve mentioned it across several posts; my positioning, my reasoning, and the small-weight ETF I used to test this equation: BTCZ.

This wasn’t about making some oversized bet, as mentioned before it had low-weight allocation meant to test a specific part of this "organic framework"-if-you-will.

This equation has now run its full course, where I believe I've extracted maximum value and this highest probability point of exiting positively; yes, I can push this a little farther, yet I not only want to realize profit, yet I also want to embed the further "it was an equation that delivered" and the data behind it does all the talking. Profit achieved. Equation validated.

Even though I've also questioned its validity, multiple times; I followed it. Mission complete and position closed.

The Equation of Gold - And Onwards We Go

Every equation you have, every one you build must build on the remnants of the previous; I say remnants as equations are those that "decay", so you only pick up whatever useful parts to build on the next. The base is from something you've always worked with and your trying to further improve the equations output for whatever portion is within your control.

Earlier this year I held a considerable position of my portfolio in a gold mining stock and ending up selling that position weeks ago and now my positioning has shifted from a positive skew to a now negative one. I've initiated multiple new positions tied to this updated hypothesis and I've given them higher-portfolio-weight. The current framework justifies it; but remember, this is my own hypothesis, and all my calculations, interpretations and else can still fail. One must interpret the equation from multiple angles if one wants a cleaner understanding. Heres a situation where I failed, and only days ago.

My Failure - Mistimed Entry

The ETFs I entered recently were entered at the wrong time; it wasn't a thesis in the wrong, nor the equation; it was purely wrong timing. I pulled the trigger when the equation weren't fully activated, it wasn't an all-lights-green; and that's a failure. I had a clear misalignment between discipline and execution, something no one on earth is immune to, yet lessons must be learnt if one is to have any hopes in improving. This is maintenance is all, we must keep that blade sharp.

The conviction behind my new positions remains: unchanged.

The Core Positioning - Strategic Defense

My core stance does not change: one must be ultra defensive. Capital must survive long enough to be redeployed when exact alignment arrives.

My positioning right now is:

• 75% Ultra-Defensive Equities
• 20% U.S. Treasuries
• 5% ETFs aligned with my negative skew on Gold

Protect yourself and be patient. Remember to integrate your mistakes. One must evolve, especially in conditions of today; it’s easy to get emotionally attached to something you’ve spent countless hours building.

All the best and peace out for now!